What pro-lifers can learn from Guttmacher’s 2024 data

While a pro-life researcher advised advocates to view the Guttmacher Institute’s latest estimates showing a slight abortion increase in 2024 with some skepticism, the scholar believes that the data does offer a few insights about the impact of public policy on the incidence of abortion. 

Michael New, a senior associate scholar at the pro-life Charlotte Lozier Institute and assistant professor of social research at the Catholic University of America, broke down the pro-abortion Guttmacher Institute’s updated abortion estimates for 2024 released this month, showing that 1,038,100 abortions were performed that year. Planned Parenthood’s former research arm notes that the total rise in abortions represents an increase of less than 1% since 2023. 

“While pro-lifers should take these Guttmacher estimates with a grain of salt, their report contains some interesting information for pro-lifers,” New told The Christian Post. 

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The data comes from the Guttmacher Institute’s Monthly Abortion Provision survey, and the organization admits these calculations come from a “slimmer portfolio of data,” New noted in an op-ed Wednesday for The National Review. This means that the data may not be as accurate as Guttmacher’s previous estimates, New contends. 

In response to an inquiry from CP, a spokesperson for the Guttmacher Institute stated that both sides of the abortion debate cite the organization’s research and Guttmacher’s scientists are transparent about their work’s methodology and potential limitations. 

“We remain committed to providing the facts and analysis to counter misinformation and to help our audiences better understand the constantly shifting landscape of abortion provision in the United States,” the spokesperson stated. 

Despite the potential limitations, New asserts that the research shows how policy decisions at the state level impact abortion rates, highlighting the data from Wisconsin. The state had one of the largest increases in abortion numbers, according to the Guttmacher Institute’s estimates, going from 1,300 abortions in 2023 to 6,100 in 2024. 

New attributed the increase to a 2023 ruling by Circuit Court Judge Diane Schlipper. Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022, an 1849 law that reportedly banned abortion in Wisconsin went back into effect. 

In July 2023, however, Schlipper ruled that the law doesn’t use the term “abortion,” and that it only prohibits attacking a pregnant woman to kill her unborn child. 

As a result of the circuit court judge’s ruling, Planned Parenthood in Wisconsin resumed offering abortions, and, according to New, this expanded access caused abortions to “skyrocket” in the state.

“Similarly, Rhode Island saw abortion numbers increase by 20% after its Medicaid program started to cover elective abortions,” New told CP. “However, both Florida and South Carolina saw large abortion declines after Heartbeat Laws took effect in 2023.” 

Another section of the Guttmacher Institute’s data appears to show a reduction in the number of in-state abortions. In Florida, for example, the Guttmacher Institute reported that there were 12,100 fewer abortions provided in the state than in 2023. 

New attributed this decline to a law going into effect that bans abortions once a preborn child’s heartbeat becomes detectable, usually around six weeks gestation. South Carolina experienced a similar decline around the same time its six-week abortion ban went into effect, and 3,500 fewer abortions were provided in the state in 2024 than in 2023.

The total number of women who crossed state lines for an abortion also declined by over 8% between 2023 and 2024, New noted. 

However, New said that pro-life advocates and the Food and Drug Administration should not ignore the increase in the number of abortions provided by online clinics.

As the Guttmacher Institute reported, abortions via online-only clinics in states without total bans rose to 14% in 2024 from 10% in 2023. 

“As such, pro-lifers need to step up their efforts to get Food and Drug Administration officials to restore limits on chemical abortion drugs,” New told CP.