Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 saw the spectre of a major armed conflict darken Europe’s door again for the first time since the end of World War II.
The UK and EU immediately leapt to Ukraine’s defence, cracking down on Moscow with a barrage of economic sanctions and committing billions in military and humanitarian funding to boost Kyiv‘s war effort.
But now almost two full years into the conflict with no clear end in sight, European nations are forced to confront the very real possibility the war could drag on indefinitely – and perhaps even spill beyond the borders of Ukraine.
In an alarming speech earlier this month, Sweden’s Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said: ‘There could be war in Sweden… The world is facing a security outlook with greater risks than at any time since the end of the Second World War,’ urging his citizens to join voluntary civil defence groups.
Days later, Estonia’s Prime Minister declared that Europe has just three to five years to prepare for Russia’s return as a serious military threat on NATO‘s eastern flank, before British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps this week declared he would send 20,000 British troops to take part in one of NATO’s largest war games since the Cold War.
‘Our adversaries are busily rebuilding their barriers, old enemies are reanimated, battle lines are being redrawn, the tanks are literally on Ukraine’s lawn and the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core,’ he said.
These stark warnings came as leaked documents from the German Ministry of Defence outlined a step-by-step doomsday guide on how Russia could escalate the conflict in Ukraine to an even bigger battle.
The leaked plans, published by German newspaper Bild, reveal in detail the path to a Third World War with Putin using Belarus as a launching pad for an invasion – as he did in February 2022 for his war in Ukraine.
General Sir Richard Barrons warned that Britain is sorely underprepared for a conflict with Russia, and urged the government to invest heavily in reconstituting the armed forces to meet the challenge.
‘Russia is clearly angry and rearming so their capability will be restored and when the shooting stops in Ukraine, Russia will blame the outcome on us,’ he told MailOnline
‘We are already In confrontation with Russia. Right now, we have chosen to do very little about it.
‘During the Cold War the Army, at all times, was ready to fight at four hours’ notice. When the Cold War ended and there was no sense of existential risk to the UK, all of that was dismantled.
In an alarming speech earlier this month, Sweden's Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said: 'There could be war in Sweden... The world is facing a security outlook with greater risks than at any time since the end of the Second World War,' urging his citizens to join voluntary civil defence groups.
Days later, Estonia’s Prime Minister declared that Europe has just three to five years to prepare for Russia’s return as a serious military threat on NATO’s eastern flank, before British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps this week declared he would send 20,000 British troops to take part in one of NATO’s largest war games since the Cold War.
‘Our adversaries are busily rebuilding their barriers, old enemies are reanimated, battle lines are being redrawn, the tanks are literally on Ukraine’s lawn and the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core,’ he said.
These stark warnings came as leaked documents from the German Ministry of Defence outlined a step-by-step doomsday guide on how Russia could escalate the conflict in Ukraine to an even bigger battle.
The leaked plans, published by German newspaper Bild, reveal in detail the path to a Third World War with Putin using Belarus as a launching pad for an invasion – as he did in February 2022 for his war in Ukraine.
General Sir Richard Barrons warned that Britain is sorely underprepared for a conflict with Russia, and urged the government to invest heavily in reconstituting the armed forces to meet the challenge.
‘Russia is clearly angry and rearming so their capability will be restored and when the shooting stops in Ukraine, Russia will blame the outcome on us,’ he told MailOnline
‘We are already In confrontation with Russia. Right now, we have chosen to do very little about it.
‘During the Cold War the Army, at all times, was ready to fight at four hours’ notice. When the Cold War ended and there was no sense of existential risk to the UK, all of that was dismantled.
‘Now we would need five to 10 years’ notice of a Russian surprise attack to manage to deal with it. It’s deeply disappointing.’
Retired US Army Brigadier General Kevin Ryan also told MailOnline that a failure to prepare on the part of NATO could incite Putin to strike.
‘Until recently it didn’t seem Russia could build an army good enough to enforce that demand. But if Russia continues to have success enlarging its force and ramping up military production then we need to get ready.
‘Getting ready could be enough to avert a wider war. Not getting ready could invite one,’ he concluded.
Ben Hodges, who commanded who commanded the US Army in Europe between 2014 and 2018, added: ‘If the civilian leadership doesn’t think there’s a threat, they won’t be able to move quickly enough. Our leaders should talk to us like adults. It doesn’t mean you’re a scaremongerer, it means you’re taking precaution, which is exactly what we should be doing.’
‘Now we would need five to 10 years’ notice of a Russian surprise attack to manage to deal with it. It’s deeply disappointing.’
Retired US Army Brigadier General Kevin Ryan also told MailOnline that a failure to prepare on the part of NATO could incite Putin to strike.
‘Until recently it didn’t seem Russia could build an army good enough to enforce that demand. But if Russia continues to have success enlarging its force and ramping up military production then we need to get ready.
‘Getting ready could be enough to avert a wider war. Not getting ready could invite one,’ he concluded.
Ben Hodges, who commanded who commanded the US Army in Europe between 2014 and 2018, added: ‘If the civilian leadership doesn’t think there’s a threat, they won’t be able to move quickly enough. Our leaders should talk to us like adults. It doesn’t mean you’re a scaremongerer, it means you’re taking precaution, which is exactly what we should be doing.’
The Middle East: A tinderbox waiting for a spark
The ruthless October 7 attacks on Israeli towns and kibbutzim by Hamas gunmen, in which more than 1,000 Israelis were killed, prompted Tel-Aviv to embark on a brutal aerial bombardment of and subsequent armed incursion into Palestinian territory that has left more than 20,000 Gazans dead.
But the heinous violence engulfing the Gaza Strip threatens to tip the already shaky security landscape of the wider region into total chaos.
Since October 7, Hezbollah has increased its attacks on northern Israeli towns and exchanged fire with the IDF over the border, and Yemen’s heavily armed Houthi rebel forces have hijacked commercial shipping vessels and damaged several others with missiles.
US and UK armed forces responded with full fury, conducting massive strikes on dozens of rebel-held strongholds, but the rebels’ Supreme Political Council threatened retaliation, declaring: ‘All American-British interests have become legitimate targets for the Yemeni armed forces.’
But the heinous violence engulfing the Gaza Strip threatens to tip the already shaky security landscape of the wider region into total chaos.
Since October 7, Hezbollah has increased its attacks on northern Israeli towns and exchanged fire with the IDF over the border, and Yemen’s heavily armed Houthi rebel forces have hijacked commercial shipping vessels and damaged several others with missiles.
US and UK armed forces responded with full fury, conducting massive strikes on dozens of rebel-held strongholds, but the rebels’ Supreme Political Council threatened retaliation, declaring: ‘All American-British interests have become legitimate targets for the Yemeni armed forces.’
The Houthis made good on the threat this week, blasting a US-owned freight ship sailing the Gulf of Aden with yet another missile, while unsettling footage in Yemen’s capital Sanaa showed tens if not hundreds of thousands of people chanting anti-US slogans.
But there is one, much graver threat, sitting behind each of the burgeoning militias in the Middle East – the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are part of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ – groups spread across the Middle East that constitute a geopolitical and military alliance to counter threats from the West and regional rivals. The Islamic Republic commands considerable forces in Iraq and Syria, which have authored several drone and rocket attacks on US bases in recent months.
Tehran is also orchestrating a wide-ranging strategic partnership treaty with none other than Vladimir Putin, for whom it is already producing drones to bombard Ukrainian cities.
Putin himself has warned that ‘further escalation of the crisis is fraught with grave and extremely dangerous and destructive consequences… It could spill over far beyond the borders of the Middle East.’
Mona Yacoubian, the Vice President of the US Institute of Peace’s MENA centre, said that with tensions set so high across the Middle East, a single spark could ignite the tinderbox at any moment.
‘The Middle East is in the throes of unprecedented levels of tension, unparalleled in recent memory. Across the region, no fewer than four major flashpoints could provoke a wider war in the Middle East. In addition to the conflict dynamics between Israel and Lebanon, the Red Sea, Iraq and Syria have all become arenas of spillover confrontation from Gaza.
‘A violent spike in any of these hot spots could quickly escalate to a wider confrontation,’ she concluded.
The Houthis made good on the threat this week, blasting a US-owned freight ship sailing the Gulf of Aden with yet another missile, while unsettling footage in Yemen’s capital Sanaa showed tens if not hundreds of thousands of people chanting anti-US slogans.
But there is one, much graver threat, sitting behind each of the burgeoning militias in the Middle East – the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are part of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ – groups spread across the Middle East that constitute a geopolitical and military alliance to counter threats from the West and regional rivals. The Islamic Republic commands considerable forces in Iraq and Syria, which have authored several drone and rocket attacks on US bases in recent months.
Tehran is also orchestrating a wide-ranging strategic partnership treaty with none other than Vladimir Putin, for whom it is already producing drones to bombard Ukrainian cities.
Putin himself has warned that ‘further escalation of the crisis is fraught with grave and extremely dangerous and destructive consequences… It could spill over far beyond the borders of the Middle East.’
Mona Yacoubian, the Vice President of the US Institute of Peace’s MENA centre, said that with tensions set so high across the Middle East, a single spark could ignite the tinderbox at any moment.
‘The Middle East is in the throes of unprecedented levels of tension, unparalleled in recent memory. Across the region, no fewer than four major flashpoints could provoke a wider war in the Middle East. In addition to the conflict dynamics between Israel and Lebanon, the Red Sea, Iraq and Syria have all become arenas of spillover confrontation from Gaza.
‘A violent spike in any of these hot spots could quickly escalate to a wider confrontation,’ she concluded.
China-Taiwan: A localised conflict that could cause a clash of the titans
This past weekend saw Lai Ching-te – the presidential candidate most hated by Beijing – elected as Taiwan’s new leader.
Chinese officials denounced him as a dangerous separatist – with one spokesperson calling him a ‘destroyer of peace’, and declared the new president-elect does not represent the voice of his people in a delusional and derisive statement.
Analysts expect China to ramp up its display of displeasure around May – when Lai takes office – with a dramatic increase of aggressive military exercises around the island, or restricting imports from Taiwan as economic punishment.
China has done both in the past, notably holding war games on an unprecedented scale following the visit to the island of then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Beijing already routinely sends fighter jets and warships into the skies and waters around Taiwan – a constant reminder of the threat of invasion if the government refuses to become part of China.
